A Decade After the South China Sea Ruling: How Ordinary Filipinos Are Living with the Verdict

Ten years after the landmark arbitral award, the promise of a rules-based order meets the reality of daily life in the Philippines.

MANILA — On July 12, 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague delivered a historic ruling that affirmed the Philippines’ sovereign rights in the South China Sea. A decade later, as the nation marks this anniversary, the question on many minds is not just what the ruling means on paper—but how it has shaped the lives of ordinary Filipinos from fishing villages to bustling cities.

The Ruling That Changed the Narrative

The 2016 arbitral award was a sweeping victory for the Philippines. The tribunal unanimously ruled that China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea had no legal basis, that it had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone, and that its construction of artificial islands and military installations was unlawful. For Manila, it was a triumph of international law over coercion.

But a decade on, the award’s implementation remains a work in progress. While it has strengthened the Philippines’ diplomatic hand and galvanized international support, the day-to-day impact on Filipinos—especially those in coastal communities—is nuanced.

Voices from the Frontlines

In the fishing villages of Palawan and the Spratly Islands, the ruling has been both a shield and a source of frustration. Fishermen like Mario Santos, 54, from the municipality of Kalayaan, recall the pre-2016 era when Chinese vessels frequently harassed local boats.

“Before the ruling, we were often chased away or had our nets cut. After 2016, there was a period of relative calm. But in recent years, the pressure has returned,” Santos told local reporters. “The award gave us hope, but hope alone doesn’t fill our nets.”

The Philippine Coast Guard reports that incidents of Chinese maritime militia vessels blocking Filipino fishing boats have increased since 2020, despite the ruling. For many, the award remains a legal victory that has yet to translate into tangible security on the water.

The Government’s Balancing Act

President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., in a statement marking the anniversary, emphasized that the ruling remains the cornerstone of the Philippines’ foreign policy. “We continue to uphold a rules-based international order,” he said. “But we are also focused on people-centered programs that ensure our fishermen, our coastal communities, and our nation benefit from our sovereign rights.”

The administration has invested in modernizing the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard, while also pursuing diplomatic engagement with China. Critics argue that this dual approach—asserting rights while avoiding confrontation—has led to a stalemate. Supporters counter that it has prevented escalation and kept the award alive as a diplomatic tool.

The Economic Ripple Effect

Beyond security, the ruling has had economic implications. The Philippines has sought to attract foreign investment in its offshore oil and gas exploration, citing the award as legal cover. However, actual development has been slow due to overlapping claims and the high cost of operations in disputed waters.

For ordinary Filipinos, the most visible impact may be in the price of fuel and fish. Analysts note that uncertainty in the South China Sea continues to affect supply chains and insurance costs for vessels operating in the region, indirectly raising prices at the market.

A Decade of Lessons

The 2016 award remains a landmark in international law, but it has also exposed the limits of legal victories in a world where power often trumps principle. For the Philippines, the ruling has been a diplomatic asset, a source of national pride, and a rallying point for regional allies like the United States, Japan, and Australia.

Yet for the fisherman in Palawan, the farmer in Luzon, and the office worker in Manila, the award’s promise of security and prosperity remains incomplete. As the nation looks to the next decade, the challenge is clear: how to turn a legal triumph into a lived reality for all Filipinos.

Looking Ahead

The anniversary comes at a time of heightened tension in the region, with China’s activities in the South China Sea showing no signs of abating. The Philippines is now pushing for a binding Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, though negotiations have stalled.

For now, the 2016 award stands as a testament to the power of law. But as one Manila-based analyst put it, “The ruling gave the Philippines a seat at the table. The next decade must be about making sure that seat translates into real influence and real benefits for the people.”

As the sun sets over the West Philippine Sea, the waters remain contested. But for the millions of Filipinos who look to that horizon, the hope kindled a decade ago still burns—even if its flame flickers in the wind.