Tropical Depression Nears PAR, Threatens Visayas and Mindanao with Days of Rain

A developing weather system is set to dump rain across the southern Philippines, with forecasters warning it could strengthen into a typhoon by the weekend.

MANILA, Philippines — A tropical depression churning toward the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) will bring gloomy skies and scattered rains to parts of Visayas and Mindanao on Thursday, state weather forecasters said, even as the storm itself remains outside the country's boundary.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) reported that the depression's trough — the elongated band of clouds trailing the storm — will trigger overcast conditions and thunderstorms across Eastern Visayas, the Caraga region, Davao Region, and Sarangani.

What to Expect on Thursday

According to Pagasa, the areas most likely to see heavy rainshowers include:

• Eastern Visayas
• Caraga
• Misamis Oriental and Camiguin
• Davao Oriental

The rest of Visayas, Mindanao, and Palawan, meanwhile, can expect generally clearer skies — though localized thunderstorms remain possible, a common afternoon occurrence in the archipelago.

Storm on Track to Enter PAR

The depression is projected to cross into the PAR on Thursday, September 24, according to forecasters. Once inside, it will receive a local name and come under closer monitoring by Pagasa.

More concerning, however, is the storm's projected intensification. The Philippine News Agency reported that the low-pressure area (LPA) feeding the system is likely to reach typhoon category by the weekend — a rapid escalation that could shift the forecast from a rain event into a potential disaster scenario.

Forecasters also noted that the storm may enhance the habagat, or southwest monsoon, which could pull moisture across a wider swath of the country and prolong rainfall well beyond the storm's immediate track.

A Cyclone Outside the Picture

Complicating the forecast is a separate cyclone that has developed outside the PAR. While it poses no immediate threat to the Philippines, its presence in the broader Western Pacific basin can influence wind patterns and steering currents — factors that determine whether the incoming depression curves away from land or barrels toward it.

Why This Matters: The Compounding Risk

September sits squarely in the peak of the Philippines' typhoon season, and the country has already absorbed multiple weather systems this year. The incoming depression raises several red flags:

• Rapid intensification. A system that jumps from LPA to typhoon in a matter of days gives communities and local governments a compressed window to prepare.
• Rain-on-rain scenarios. Even before the storm arrives, its trough will saturate soil in Eastern Visayas and Caraga — regions still recovering from previous rain events. Saturated ground raises the risk of flash floods and landslides once heavier downpours begin.
• Monsoon enhancement. If the storm strengthens the habagat, rainfall could extend into areas far from the storm's center, catching residents off guard.

A Region Accustomed — But Never Fully Prepared

Eastern Visayas and Caraga are no strangers to severe weather. Both regions lie along the country's eastern seaboard, the first line of defense against Pacific storms. Yet each year, flooding and landslides in these provinces displace thousands of families and damage millions of pesos in crops and infrastructure.

The trough-driven rains expected Thursday may seem modest compared to a direct hit — but disaster officials repeatedly warn that water, not wind, is the deadliest hazard in tropical cyclones. Low-lying villages, riverbanks, and mountain slopes are the areas to watch.

What to Do Now

Pagasa advises residents in affected areas to:

• Monitor official bulletins as the storm enters PAR and receives a local name
• Prepare emergency kits and know evacuation routes
• Avoid riverbanks, coastal areas, and landslide-prone slopes during heavy rain
• Follow local government advisories on class and work suspensions

Outlook

All eyes are on the next 48 to 72 hours. If the depression tracks as forecast, the Philippines could face a typhoon-strength system by the weekend — a scenario that would demand swift coordination between Pagasa, the Office of Civil Defense, and local disaster risk reduction offices.

For now, the message from forecasters is one of cautious vigilance: the storm is still offshore, but its rains are already on the way.