Vico Sotto, Baste Duterte Emerge as Early Favorites for 2028 Senate Race, OCTA Survey Shows
MANILA, Philippines — With the 2028 national elections still more than a year and a half away, early survey results are already reshaping the political landscape, placing Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto and Davao City Mayor Sebastian "Baste" Duterte among the most preferred candidates for senator, according to an OCTA Research survey reported by Philstar.com and BusinessWorld Online.
The survey, released Monday, offers an early glimpse of voter sentiment heading into a crowded midterm-style senatorial contest that will run alongside the 2028 presidential election. It also shows a tightly contested race at the top, with four aspirants statistically tied.
What the Survey Found
- Sotto and Duterte — both young local executives with famous political surnames — ranked among the top choices for Senate.
- Four candidates were statistically tied at the front of the pack, underscoring how unsettled the field remains.
- The results were consistent across coverage by Philstar.com, BusinessWorld Online, and Malaya Business Insight, all of which reported on the OCTA findings.
OCTA Research is a well-known Philippine polling firm whose surveys are widely cited by media and political analysts, though early pre-election surveys are often volatile and heavily influenced by name recognition.
Why Sotto and Duterte Stand Out
The two mayors represent distinct but overlapping political currents.
Vico Sotto, 36, has built a reputation as a reform-minded local executive in Pasig City, earning national attention for transparency initiatives and pandemic-era governance. His surname carries weight: he is the son of actor-comedian Vic Sotto and nephew of former Senate President Tito Sotto, giving him both name recall and an independent reformist brand.
Sebastian Duterte, the youngest son of former President Rodrigo Duterte and brother of Vice President Sara Duterte, commands a formidable regional and national base. His possible Senate bid would extend the Duterte family's political footprint beyond Mindanao and into the national legislature.
Context: A Shifting Political Landscape
The survey lands amid what analysts describe as a realignment of Philippine political blocs. Recent polling cited by Philstar.com suggests the traditional Marcos support base is eroding. Only about 18 percent of Filipinos now identify as Marcos supporters — down four points since March — while the opposition-leaning "Pink-Yellow" bloc has risen to 20 percent, overtaking the Marcos camp.
That fragmentation could explain why early senatorial preferences are so fluid. With no dominant coalition, voters appear to be gravitating toward candidates with strong personal brands rather than strict party affiliations.
Analysis: Name Recall and Local Performance
The early strength of Sotto and Duterte illustrates two enduring features of Philippine elections:
- Name recognition is king. Early surveys reward candidates with high visibility, whether through family dynasties or media presence.
- Local governance can translate nationally. Sotto's rise from local politics to national prominence mirrors the path taken by other reformist figures, though few have converted local popularity into Senate seats without party machinery.
Still, analysts caution that surveys taken well before the official campaign period — which begins in early 2028 — are poor predictors of final outcomes. Filing of candidacies is not expected until late 2027, and the field will likely shift as alliances form and presidential candidates build their senatorial slates.
What's Next
The 2028 general election, scheduled for May 8, 2028, will determine not only the presidency but also the composition of Congress and thousands of local posts. Senatorial aspirants typically align with presidential candidates, meaning Sotto's and Duterte's eventual decisions may hinge on which presidential tickets they join — or whether they run independently.
For now, the OCTA survey serves as an early signal: Filipino voters are already looking past the current administration and toward a new generation of political leaders. Whether that enthusiasm holds through the bruising campaign ahead remains the central question of the 2028 cycle.
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